There is a massive shift in consumer behavior coming, and it’s going to affect nearly every category in the United States in 2025. Brands that anticipate and proactively plan for that shift will find ways to delight consumers as demand changes; brands that ignore it will see their business impacted in small ways and large, and in ways that feel beyond their control.
That change comes in a little molecule called a glucagon-like peptide agonist, or GLP-1. You probably already know about GLP-1s: the data says that if you aren’t already on a GLP-1, you are close to someone who is. 1 in 8 US adults have already tried a GLP-1, and prescription volume is about to explode even further as federal coverage and reimbursement policy makes GLP-1s more affordable and accessible.
GLP-1 is a naturally-occurring hormone that the small intestine makes to stimulate insulin production and reduce glucagon production after eating. The net effect of this release is to slow the digestion process, which introduces less glucose (blood sugar) into your bloodstream, as well as to trigger feelings of satiety (fullness, satisfaction).
While these drugs were initially used for the primary purpose of lowering blood glucose in people with type 2 diabetes, the satiety side effect and slower digestion also resulted in lower overall hunger, fewer cravings (particularly for fatty and sugary foods), and ultimately significant weight loss.
This weight loss benefit triggered a wave of regulatory pushes by GLP-1 manufacturers and medical associations to have obesity more widely accepted as a medical condition. Previously only indicated for diabetes and only available by injection, GLP-1s have surged in usage since being indicated for the treatment of obesity and made available in pill form.
In addition, compounding pharmacies and online weight loss retailers like Hims, Weight Watchers and Noom have made both getting a prescription and regularly filling it easier than ever, often bypassing patients’ primary care physicians and getting prescribed directly through their services.
The use of GLP-1s is about to explode in the U.S., and chances are good it’s going to impact your business. GLP-1s have historically been expensive medications, costing $1500 or more per month for those paying out-of-pocket. Because the U.S. has a heavy reliance on private insurance and Medicare/Medicaid formularies, Americans’ access to GLP-1s has been limited by its long-time indication for diabetes only.
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The advent of obesity-indicated drugs like Wegovy®, Saxenda®, and Zepbound® that have demonstrated not just weight loss, but also cardiovascular benefits has led insurance companies and policymakers alike to reconsider this class of drugs for formulary inclusion. More and more private insurance companies are including GLP-1s for weight loss in their standard coverage, 14 states are already piloting GLP-1 coverage for weight loss in their public Medicaid programs, and it is only a matter of time before Medicare and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs do too.
We know from more longitudinal data in Canada, where GLP-1s have been cheaper and more available than the US, that when individuals get more affordable access to these drugs, it’s not just their waistlines and cardiovascular risk that change, their behavior changes, and in some cases drastically.
GLP-1 users in Canada report a 20 percent drop in restaurant visits, a 25-30 percent drop in eating sweets, chocolate and baked goods, and an almost 20 percent drop in alcohol consumption.
Cravings drop, hunger drops, portions shrink, occasions change. Now, imagine those impacts applied to the American population, almost 100 times greater than the Canadian population and more likely to consume more of those foods today.
The impact of a massive spike in GLP-1 adoption in 2025 goes well beyond food. Retail and grocery will need to respond to different behavioral patterns, convenience stores will have to rethink their stock and layout, clothing brands will have to accommodate changes in sizing, gyms will have specific programs for those who have rapidly lost weight and are taking in many fewer calories, cars and airlines will have to account for reduced weight and potentially even a reduced need for wider seats. Imagine the financial implications for the airline, for the average American family, and for the gas industry in an America where the average weight drops by 10-15 percent.
And it’s not just eating and weight loss. GLP-1s work by engaging the reward systems of the brain and endocrine system, effectively suppressing the dopamine reward for impulsive behavior, making those behaviors less and less appealing. Imagine the impact on online betting companies and lottery sales if impulse behaviors are reduced, or the impact on online retail when impulsive shopping urges are reduced. There is virtually no category which will not be impacted by these drugs.
• Consume more animal proteins than average Americans
• Dine out (both at Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs) and full-service restaurants)
• Indulge in comfort food/treats on a regular basis
• Binge-watch shows for more than 2 hours in a day
• Fill free time with social media scrolling
• Drink more than 2 alcoholic drinks at a sitting
• Make impulse purchases of all kinds
These are consumers who are relevant to nearly all industries, and as GLP-1 usage spreads, so will the impact on every industry that serves them.
Today’s GLP-1s are just the beginning of a major future factor influencing American health: behavior-supporting medication is in a renaissance, and investment in new medications and new indications is soaring. In the wake of the success of GLP-1s, drug companies are scrambling to develop, test, and bring to market more behavior-supporting drugs.
Wall Street analysts anticipate the market for GLP-1 drugs alone could reach up to $100 BILLION within a decade. Tremendous investment is being made by pharmaceutical and biotech firms into these medications in a race for the next so-called “lifestyle” drug, as both patients and practitioners are given new hope in the ability to reverse decades of physical, psychological and lifestyle influence of established behavior patterns.
The drugs are going to get more effective, more accessible and affordable, and help people modify more unwanted behaviors… and every brand in every category is going to get caught in the wave whether they like it or not.
The companies and brands that innovate in anticipation of the impact of these drugs will find themselves awash in new interest from those who feel a new sense of control and autonomy in their choices: brands that speak to their aspirational selves, affirm their commitments to living better, and underscore that behavior-modifying medications are only step one of a lifelong shift that includes their category and brand.
Food brands that shift from volume that satisfies to taste and experience that satisfies, from easy fat-and-salt wins to more complex and differentiated wins that delight and surprise. Clothing brands that follow you as your shape changes, that refuse to be the “before” in the before and after picture and instead become the “always there for you” partner. Lifestyle brands that never shamed you where you were and don’t begrudge where you are going.
Those who don’t innovate will simply be left behind as tastes change, a reminder of a period before the will to change could become actual change, a relic of a bad habit that consumers do not want to return to.
Preparing for this change means understanding what’s coming and predicting how Americans in your target segment(s) will respond to it. The Directions Group has conducted a large multi-modal study that has identified six key sets of Life Lenses that drive American behavior in light of our changing health.
Behavior-supporting medications are only one of the 6 Future Factors that The Directions Group has identified as being most relevant to changing health behaviors in the US; get the full report and let us help your brand prepare to thrive as American tastes, occasions and needs change with our changing health.
Senior Vice President of Human Health at The Directions Group, Justin brings 20 years of intelligence, foresight, and strategy expertise to healthcare. He pioneered qualitative and activation practices in the industry and has advised leading brands—Phillips, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Medtronic, AstraZeneca, Merck, Novo Nordisk, and more—as well as top pediatric hospitals. A dedicated advocate for American health, his work spans diabetes, endocrine disorders, and broader quality improvement.
